PoliticsWatch's Viewer's Guide to Election Night  
by Romeo St. Martin

[PoliticsWatch posted 5:10 p.m. January 20, 2006]

Be the star at your election get together with PoliticsWatch's guide to election night.

Get ready for the Super Bowl of politics.

On Monday evening, millions of Canadians across the country will be glued to their television sets - beer and popcorn in hand - watching the results of the 39th federal election come in. 

Polls are pointing to a Conservative victory. 

That means that there is a potential political sea change occurring in the country. 

This will translate mainly into Liberal seats becoming Conservative seats. There are 46 ridings across the country that are bellwether ridings. That means when Conservative governments are elected, the people in those ridings elect Conservative MPs. Likewise for the Liberals. 

In order to better understand the trends on election night, PoliticsWatch presents the key ridings and trends to watch. 

Atlantic Canada

Fredericton - The only bellwether riding in Atlantic Canada has voted for the party that won power in the last six federal elections, dating back to Brian Mulroney's 1984 landslide. 

The current MP is Indian Affairs Minister Andy Scott. He is in what the Globe and Mail this week described as a "tight" race with Tory candidate Pat Lynch, who worked on Harper's leadership campaign in Atlantic Canada in 2004. 

Scott won the riding by more than 5,000 votes over a Tory candidate in 2004 and garnered 47 per cent of total votes.

When the results pour in during the early hours keep an eye on Scott's riding. 

A hold for the Liberals could signal a stronger than expected night for the Grits. If the Tories win that riding then it's game on. 

Other Liberal ridings to watch

Newfoundland 

Bonavista - Gander - Grand Falls - Windsor (Scott Simms, Lib/Aaron Hynes, CPC)

New Brunswick

Saint John (Paul Zed, Lib/ John Wallace, CPC)
Tobique Mactaquac (Andy Savoy, Lib/ Michael Allen, CPC)

Nova Scotia

West Nova (Robert Thibault Lib/ Greg Kerr, CPC)

Conservative candidate Lawrence Cannon.

Quebec

Pontiac -- In the seven last federal elections, the residents of the West Quebec riding of Pontiac have voted for the party that won. Conservative star candidate Lawrence Cannon could pull off an upset as the Toronto Star reported this week he is in a "very close race" with rookie Liberal MP David Smith and Bloc candidate Christine Émond-Lapointe. In the 2004 election, the Conservative candidate finished third, about 8,000 votes behind Smith. 

There are other bellwether ridings that the Conservatives aren't expecting to win, but how the Tories finish in these races could be an indicator of how they will do in Ontario. 

Jeanne -- Le Ber -  Heritage Minister Liza Frulla is expected to lose this Montreal seat to Bloc candidate Thierry St-Cyr. Frulla held on to the seat by just 72 votes in 2004. But look at the results for Conservative candidate Pierre-Olivier Brunelle and see how much he improves of the 2,524 votes the Tory candidate won in the riding in 2004. 

Lac-Saint-Louis - Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia easily won this Montreal bellwether riding with 64 per cent of the vote. He probably will win re-election, but check out the results for Conservative Andrea Paine and see if she can build on the 6,082 votes the Tories won there in 2004. 

Laval - Les Ises - It appears to be a two-way race between Liberal MP Raymonde Folco and BQ candidate Christiane Pichette. But see if Conservative Qais Hamidi can win more than the 3,498 votes the Tories won in this suburban Montreal riding in 2004. 

Pierrefonds - Dollard -  Liberal MP Bernard Patry won this riding with 63 per cent of the vote in 2004. See if Conservative candidate Don Rae can build on the 5010 votes the Tories won in 2004. 

Other ridings to Watch

Louis - Saint Laurent (Bernard Cleary, BQ/ Josee Verner, CPC)
Gatineau (Francois Boivin, Lib/ Richard Nadeau, BQ)
Papineau (Pierre Pettigrew, Lib/ Vivian Barbot, BQ)

Ontario

The election will be won and lost in Ontario. There are numerous seats that are bellwethers and that seat projectors show could shift if the polling numbers hold up. Once the results start showing in these ridings a national trend will be clear. 

Southwestern Ontario

Sarnia-Lambton --  A bellwether riding held by Liberal MP Roger Gallaway has voted for the government in a remarkable 12-consecutive federal elections dating back to 1963. Gallaway won the riding with 42 per cent of the vote in the 2004 election. He is being challenged by Conservative Patricia Davidson. 

London West -- Conservative Al Gretzky takes on incumbent Liberal Sue Barnes in this riding that has voted in the winning party in seven straight elections. Barnes finished 8,000 votes ahead of the Tories in 2004. 

Brant (Lloyd St. Amand, Lib/ Phil McColeman, CPC)
Kitchener Conestoga (Lynn Myers, Lib/Harold Albrecht, CPC
Chatham Essex Kent (James F. Comiskey, Lib/Dave Van Kesteren, CPC)
Lambton - Kent - Middlesex (Jeff Wesley, Lib/ Bev Shipley, CPC)
London-Fanshawe (Dan Mailer, CPC/ Glen Pearson, Lib/ Irene Mathyssen, NDP)

Hamilton - Burlington -- Niagara

Ancaster -- Dundas -Flamborough -- Westdale - Another bellwether where Conservative candidate David Sweet is challenging Liberal MP Russ Powers. This race a rematch of the 2004 campaign where Powers won by 2,800 votes. 

Burlington - Liberal MP Paddy Torsney looks to head off Tory Mike Wallace in another rematch from the 2004 campaign. Torsney won by 4,000 votes in a riding that has sent a government MP to Ottawa since 1984. 

Halton - Former Conservative cabinet minister Garth Turner takes on Liberal incumbent Gary Carr in a riding that has voted for the party that wins in six elections. Carr won in 2004 with a 5,600-vote margin. 

St. Catharines - Liberal MP Walt Lastewka looks to hang on against Conservative Rick Dykstra. Lastewka won his riding by 3,000 votes in 2004. 

Hamilton Mountain (Bill Kelly, Lib/ Chris Charlton, NDP/ Don Graves, CPC)
Hamilton East Stoney Creek (Tony Valeri, Lib/ Wayne Marston, NDP)

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and candidate Peter Kent.

Toronto

St. Paul's - In the last nine elections, the residents of the Toronto riding of St. Paul's have voted in the same party that won the national election. Liberal cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett is up against some tough competition. The Conservatives have a star candidate, Peter Kent, running and the NDP has economist Paul Summerville. The Conservative theory is that the popular Summerville will eat away Liberal votes from Bennett. Bennett won the riding by 21,000 votes in 2004. But because it is one of the strongest bellwethers in the country it cannot be seen as an easy win. The Toronto Star reported this week that Bennett is calling this campaign "a real race."

Etobicoke Lakeshore - Much touted academic Michael Ignatieff is facing off against John Capobianco. A Conservative source has told PoliticsWatch that this as a riding to watch. Former Liberal cabinet minister Jean Augustine defeated Capobianco by almost 10,000 votes in 2004, but the riding has been a bellwether in the past six federal elections. 

Parkdale High Park (Sam Bulte, Lib/ Peggy Nash, NDP)
Trinity Spadina (Tony Ianno, Lib/ Olivia Chow, NDP)
Beaches East York (Maria Minna, Lib/ Marilyn Churley, NDP)

Central Ontario

Northumberland - Quinte West - Liberal MP Paul Macklin looks to hang on against Conservative Rick Norlock. Macklin won the riding by just 313 votes in 2004 and it has voted in the governing party since 1984.

Peterborough - Liberal MP Peter Adams is not seeking re-election so it's up to Liberal candidate Diane Lloyd to hold this seat against Conservative Dean Del Mastro. The seat was part of Brian Mulroney's two majorities in the 80s. The Liberals won the seat by almost 7,000 votes in 2004. 

Simcoe-North - Another riding where the Liberal incumbent has decided not to run again. Bruce Stanton is the Conservative candidate and is up against Liberal Karen Graham. The Liberals won the riding by 3,000 votes in 2004. 

Barrie (Aileen Carroll, Lib/ Patrick Brown, CPC)

Ottawa and Eastern Ontario

Ottawa South (David McGuinty, Lib/ Allan Cutler, CPC)
Ottawa West Nepean (Lee Farnworth, Lib/ John Baird CPC)
Ottawa Orleans (Marc Godbout, Lib/ Royal Galipeau, CPC)
Glengarry - Prescott - Russell (Rene Berthiaume, Lib/Pierre Lemieux, CPC)

Northern Ontario

Nippissing Timiskaming - Liberal MP Anthony Rota is trying to hang against Conservative Peter Chirico in riding that has voted in the governing party dating back to 1980. Rota won the riding by just 2,200 votes in 2004. 

Parry Sound Muskoka - Liberal cabinet minister Andy Mitchell is in for a battle with Tory Tony Clement in a riding that was a part of the two Mulroney majorities. Mitchell won by 2,300 votes in 2004. 

Kenora (Roger Valley, Lib; Susan Barclay, NDP; Bill Brown, CPC)
Nickel Belt (Ray Bonin, Lib/ Claude Gravell, NDP)

905 region

Oakville - This riding was part of Brian Mulroney and Jean Chretien's majorities. Tory Terence Young is up against incumbent Liberal Bonnie Brown. Brown won the riding by over 9,000 votes in 2004. 

Whitby Oshawa (Judy Longfield, Lib/ Jim Flaherty, CPC)
Brampton West (Colleen Beaumier, Lib/ Baljit Gosal, CPC)

Western Canada

Liberal cabinet minister Reg Alcock.

Manitoba 

Winnipeg South -- Liberal cabinet minister Reg Alcock's riding is the only bellwether in Manitoba as the Conservatives won it in the Mulroney era. Alcock won the riding by 7,000 votes in 2004 against Tory Rod Bruinooge who is the candidate once again in 2006. The Liberals are expecting Alcock will hold on to his seat.

Saskatchewan 

Wascana - Finance Minister Ralph Goodale is leading in his riding by just six points, according to a poll this week by the Regina Leader Post. Conservative Brad Farquhar is looking to win this seat that has voted the same way as the country in every election since 1988. 

Alberta 

Edmonton Centre - Deputy PM Anne McLellan's riding has been won by the party that wins power in every election since 1984. McLellan beat Conservative Laurie Hawn by 721 votes in 2004. 

Edmonton Mill Woods Beaumont --- The riding held by former Liberal MP David Kilgour has been won in Conservative Alberta largely due to Kilgour's personal popularity. He will not be running in this election and Conservative Mike Lake is expected to win easily. 

B.C.

There are two bellwethers in  B.C., but the Tories are not expected to win in Vancouver Centre or Vancouver South. 

North Vancouver (Don Bell, Lib/ Cindy Silver, CPC)
Richmond (Raymond Chan, Lib/ Darrel Reid, CPC)
Vancouver Kingsway (David Emerson, Lib/ Ian Waddell, NDP)
Victoria (David Mulroney, Lib/ Denise Savoie, NDP)

© PoliticsWatch 2004. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PoliticsWatch content, including by framing, copying, linking or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Public Interests Research and Communications Inc. PoliticsWatch is registered trademark of PIRCINC.